Exhibit
02
Fed and ECB speech sentiment · 2011–2026
Closely aligned for eight years — crossing five times. Then, in 2019, they split, and they have not rejoined since.
Across 255,000 speeches
Net sentiment per speech, annual mean · 1,533 Fed and 1,713 ECB speeches, 2011–2026
A 2019 BIS working paper found the two closely linked. The record since does not.
One view from the Talks Decoded archive of 255,000 speeches
When the language moves
From a single speech to a database of speeches over decades — we decode the flow, and analyse how language moves. Early recognition of consequential change.
Exhibit
03
Who owns the file · European Commission, 2019 onward
Speech is Behaviour.
Speaker
Role
Speeches
Hedging
Kadri Simson
Commissioner
174
0.46
Ursula von der Leyen
President
109
0.48
Wopke Hoekstra
Commissioner
40
0.45
Valdis Dombrovskis
Exec. Vice-President
33
0.69
Elisa Ferreira
Commissioner
30
0.41
Mairead McGuinness
Commissioner
16
0.69
Jessika Roswall
Commissioner
13
0.80
The hedging column is where the value sits. A speaker who hedges heavily on a subject is a speaker whose institution has not settled its position.
the file is still open
Commission speeches mentioning fossil fuels or energy transition, 2019 onward
Hedging: share of words drawn from an uncertainty lexicon
Figures correct as at 6 August 2026 · one view from an archive of 255,000 speeches, maintained daily